Dallas weather: Polar vortex to bring freezing temperatures to North Texas

Dallas weather: Jan. 15 afternoon forecast

FOX 4 meteorologist Ali Turiano takes a look at the blast of polar air expected to drop temperatures in North Texas.

DALLAS - Most of the nation is in good shape on Wednesday and will be warmer on Thursday. The arctic air is coming, but not yet. The center of the polar vortex is not coming to Texas, but it will funnel cold air down from the North Police, so it will keep us well below average next week.

Polar vortex

The polar vortex, a band of strong winds that circles the North Pole, will send a blast of arctic air to Texas. The good news is the center of the polar vortex is staying in Canada. It is not coming to Texas.

It will be cold next week, but between now and then it will come in shifts.

LINK: Live DFW Radar

Wednesday through Friday Forecast

What we know:

Wednesday and Thursday will be beautiful weather. Wednesday we will have a north wind, sun and the 50s this afternoon.

Thursday will start near freezing with a few clouds but will turn warmer with a west wind. It will be light winds and temperatures in the 60s.

Friday we start watching two systems that will impact north Texas. First is a Pacific system that will be racing in but weakening at the same time. It will throw clouds across the area...along with stronger south winds. Basically, it will stay mild...but you may not feel it as much as you could thanks to the cloud cover and the wind.

What we don't know:

While the system will provide lift, the air may be too dry to support much more than an isolated shower or two (mainly EAST of Dallas). We will have more information as the forecast progresses on Thursday.

Saturday Forecast

What we know:

Second will be the cold air coming down in pieces. The first piece will already be here by sunrise on Saturday. It won't be really cold thanks to mostly sunny skies, but it will be chilly enough as temps remain in the 40s all day with gusty north winds and wind chills in the 30s.

The next piece of cold air comes in on Saturday night, preceded by some lift to produce extra clouds and a few flurries. Nothing to worry about, but it will drop into the 20s by Sunday morning.

On Saturday night, you will want to start dripping the faucets, make sure the pipes are still covered, cover the plants and make sure your people and pets are warm. This will need to continue through at least Tuesday.

What we don't know:

While flurries are possible, we don't know where exactly people would be more likely to see the flakes, if they come at all.

Sunday Forecast

What we know:

It's mid-January, our normal time for these air-masses.

Sunday looks mostly sunny, so at least the sun will try to balance the ARCTIC air coming in. Temps will get back above freezing in the sun but wind chills will stay in the 20s all day.

What we don't know:

Precipitation is not set in stone yet, but map #2 (GFS) has a small "appendage" that could bring snow. But as you look at the others (especially the ensemble, or collection of models), they do not indicate the same. There may be some light fluffy snow for parts of the area on Tuesday, but too soon to know.

Monday Forecast: MLK Day/Inauguration Day

On MLK Day, the sun will be fading behind increasing clouds which will limit warming and barely get us back to freezing. We will be lucky if we have a couple of hours above freezing. It will be very cold with east winds coming off an ARCTIC high pressure area.

Most of the day the wind chills will be in the teens to around 20.

The atmosphere will be so cold that if there is any precipitation next week, it will be snow. There won't be ice or sleet or rain. That would come Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday Forecast

From Monday night into Tuesday (day 7 in this forecast), there are indications that a storm could develop in the southern branch of the jet stream and actually track SOUTH of our area. Believe it or not, it could mean better snow chances in central or south Texas versus up here.

Three things to know:

First, the atmosphere will be cold enough at all levels to support snow as the precipitation type. No ice. No sleet. No rain.
Second, the cold, dry air would only support light snow.
Third and most important...it's 7 days away. And trying to pinpoint anything is impossible. All you have to do is think back to the errant predictions of 12"-18" last week and you'll know to just "stay tuned".