URGENT
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151432
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015
Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is a little less
organized than yesterday while microwave data show that Enrique's
circulation continues to be tilted. The low-level center remains
located on the southern edge of the weakening deep convection.
Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies are lower than earlier, and the
best estimate of the initial intensity is 40 kt. The circulation
is already moving over 25 degree Celsius waters. Most of the
guidance shows weakening and then dissipation in about 48 hours,
and so does the NHC forecast.
Enrique has been moving on a steady west-northwest track or 300
degrees at 7 kt steered by the flow to the south of a narrow
subtropical ridge. As Enrique weakens further and the steering flow
collapses, the cyclone should begin to drift westward or meander
until dissipation. The NHC forecast and track guidance are in good
agreement primarily during the next to 36 to 48 hours while Enrique
is still expected to be a tropical cyclone.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 19.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 20.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 20.7N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 10:32AM EDT