UT Southwestern COVID forecast shows decline in cases for third week in a row

DALLAS - For the third week in a row, the overall COVID-10 forecast by UT Southwestern researchers is hopeful.

While the number of COVID hospitalizations remain high, they have declined in recent weeks to under 3,200 from a delta surge high of nearly 3,600 earlier this month.

Nearly 90 of those are children, but that total is also down from a daily pandemic high of 131 pediatric patients in September.

Health experts say in addition to more people getting vaccinated, what they call "the risk pool" may be getting smaller.

A UNT epidemiologist says there are multiple reasons for the steady decline. 

More people have some type of immunity More people are wearing masks and getting the vaccine.

COVID hospitalizations in North Texas dropped below 3,200 Tuesday for the first time in nearly a month. It’s a contrast from the nearly 3,600 patients during the peak of the latest delta variant surge. 

Dr. Rajesh Nandy is an associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at UNT's Health Science Center in Fort Worth.

"The risk pool has diminished significantly," he said. "Because once you are vaccinated or get infected, whether you have been tested or not, you have some level of immunity."

Dr. Nandy and UT Southwestern researchers who provide COVID forecasts also say a resurgence in mask use and more people getting vaccinated is also helping reduce the spread.

"The fear is the driving factor," he said. "So a lot of people who were reluctant, not necessarily opposed to the idea of getting vaccinated, they definitely very motivated to get vaccinated."

Overall, the models for North Texas have been showing signs of improvement since late August.

UT Southwestern’s latest COVID model projects a continued downward trend in Dallas County. 

In neighboring Tarrant County, the model projects hospital numbers will flatten in the next couple of weeks. 

About 60% of Texans are now fully vaccinated, which is also a good sign. 

Dr. Nandy says while the outlooks over the last three weeks have been promising, this does not mean we won’t have another surge. 

"I do expect to see this type of stuff," he said. "Ups and downs in the near future until we actually have a really high percentage of the population totally vaccinated."

Pediatric patient levels are still high, but the model also projects a decline in cases with children as well. For the third week in a row, the overall COVID forecast by UT Southwestern researchers is hopeful.

While the number of COVID hospitalizations remain high, they have declined in recent weeks to under 3,200 from a delta surge high of nearly 3,600 earlier this month.

Nearly 90 of those are children, but that total is also down from a daily pandemic high of 131 pediatric patients in September.

Health experts say in addition to more people getting vaccinated, what they call "the risk pool" may be getting smaller.

A UNT epidemiologist says there are multiple reasons for the steady decline. 

More people have some type of immunity More people are wearing masks and getting the vaccine.

COVID hospitalizations in North Texas dropped below 3,200 Tuesday for the first time in nearly a month. It’s a contrast from the nearly 3,600 patients during the peak of the latest delta variant surge. 

Dr. Rajesh Nandy is an associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at UNT's Health Science Center in Fort Worth.

"The risk pool has diminished significantly," he said. "Because once you are vaccinated or get infected, whether you have been tested or not, you have some level of immunity."

Dr. Nandy and UT Southwestern researchers who provide COVID forecasts also say a resurgence in mask use and more people getting vaccinated is also helping reduce the spread.

"The fear is the driving factor," he said. "So a lot of people who were reluctant, not necessarily opposed to the idea of getting vaccinated, they definitely very motivated to get vaccinated."

Overall, the models for North Texas have been showing signs of improvement since late August.

UT Southwestern’s latest COVID model projects a continued downward trend in Dallas County. 

In neighboring Tarrant County, the model projects hospital numbers will flatten in the next couple of weeks. 

About 60% of Texans are now fully vaccinated, which is also a good sign. 

Dr. Nandy says while the outlooks over the last three weeks have been promising, this does not mean we won’t have another surge. 

"I do expect to see this type of stuff," he said. "Ups and downs in the near future until we actually have a really high percentage of the population totally vaccinated."

Pediatric patient levels are still high, but the model also projects a decline in cases with children as well.