Texas governor debate did little to change people's minds, recent poll shows

DALLAS - A recent poll shows very little change in the minds of voters following the one and only Texas governor's debate.

It was a little-seen debate that aired on a Friday night.

The poll released by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion showed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with an eight-point lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke among likely voters. But the poll’s margin of error is large at about 5%, which statistically allows for a two-point O'Rourke win or an 18-point Abbott blowout. 

The governor was in Dallas on Wednesday while O’Rourke was in his hometown of El Paso.

O’Rourke raises over $25 million from July through late September, outraising Abbott again

Political scientists say if Uvalde and the abortion ruling haven’t closed the gap, they don’t know what will with early voting starting in two weeks. 

"Really, nothing has changed the dynamic of this race," said SMU political scientist Matthew Wilson. "Not the Uvalde shooting. Not the Dobbs decision. Not the millions of dollars both candidates have spent, and now, not the debate."

This week, the O'Rourke campaign touted outraising Abbott in the latest campaign filings. 

With two weeks until voters can begin choosing who they want to be the next governor, Wilson says the dollars don’t matter as much. 

"Certainly, you’d rather have more money than less. But the reality is both of these candidates have more than enough money to get their message out," he said.

Wednesday, O'Rourke was back in his hometown knocking on doors. 

"Doo-to-door talking about how we are going to do a better job to support educators, how we are going to bring down property taxes and utility bills, how we are going to make sure every woman makes a decision for her own body," O’Rourke said.

Texas governor poll: Abbott leads O'Rourke, border top issue for voters

Wilson says the O'Rourke campaign is hoping the polls are off.

"What his story’s been is the polls are missing the enthusiasm among younger voters, younger female voters galvanized by the Dobbs decision," Wilson said. "I think Beto is hoping for and thinks he might be able to produce an exceptional turnout from that segment of the Democrat Party. I think that is the only way we get upset on Election Day."

As for Gov. Abbott, he’s hoping to build-off momentum from Hispanic voters along the border frustrated with illegal immigration. 

"That’s why you are going to see some Latinas running for congress who are going to be elected to seats historically held by Democrats down in the border region," Abbott said. "And I will be winning some border counties this election cycle. Something I don’t think any republican governor has done since reconstruction has been able to do."

Early voting is in two weeks on Oct. 24.

North Texas election offices say mail-in ballot requests are down, citing lack of trust since 2020 and also being in a post-pandemic world, so people are voting in person.