First day of early voting numbers in North Texas down more than 35% from 2018

DALLAS - Turnout for the first day of early voting in North Texas was more than 35% lower than in the last midterm election.

And while Monday’s rainy weather may have factored into that, the numbers suggest enthusiasm among voters just might not be as high.

Turnout can make or break any election. Day one of early voting in Texas was down compared to 2018, but some analysts are saying it’s too early to say that’s a sign overall turnout will be low. 

Joshua Blank is a research director with the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin.

"In a place like Texas with a large, growing, diverse and young population, turnout is more important than ever in determining the ultimate results," he said

Early voting in North Texas had a soggy start Monday. And voters seemed to come out in a trickle with first day early voting numbers coming out lower than the last time the governor’s race was on the ballot.

In 2018, Collin, Dallas, Denton and Tarrant counties combined had more than 153,000 voters on the first day of early voting.

Monday, about 98,000 people voted. That’s a difference of nearly 56,000 and a 36.2% decrease from 2018.

Despite rainy weather, North Texas voters head to the polls for early voting

And while that may signal lower overall early voting turnout, which tends to lean more Democrat than Republican, Blank says it’s likely too early to make a significant prediction. But he also suggests 2018’s higher turnout may have been an outlier.

"We had a rate that was similar to presidential elections in that year driven by, really in many ways, President Donald Trump leading Democrats to turnout at extremely high rates."

Blank suggests voter enthusiasm might just be lower this year overall.

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"When you look at the polling and you look at attitudes towards election, and you look at enthusiasm, it wouldn't be surprising to see a decline in turnout," he said.

And while Blank says Texas Democrats want a high turnout because they rely on people who may not consistently vote, increasing their chances to be competitive, higher turnout overall can increase the chance that any voter can get the result they want, regardless of their party.

"Ultimately, high turnout elections tend to be high turnout elections for everybody," Blake said. "It's not as though one party turns out at really high rates and the other party just stays home in most cases because the other party counter mobilizes."

Mail-in ballot numbers are down. North Texas election officials say it's because more people voting in-person in a post-pandemic world and low voter trust following 2020.