ERCOT asks for Texans to conserve energy again on Tuesday morning

ERCOT asks Texans to conserve energy on Tuesday

ERCOT issued a conservation appeal to Texans for a second-straight day. The Texas power grid operator is concerned about tightening conditions in the morning hours.

Power grid operator ERCOT is asking Texans to conserve energy on Tuesday for a second consecutive morning.

ERCOT issued a Conservation Appeal for Tuesday, Jan. 16 from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m.

ERCOT says Texas broke an all-time winter peak demand record with 75,559 MW in the 9-10 a.m. hour on Monday, but demand never outpaced supply.

"Looking forward, it's still looking good. It's looking like we might be a bit tight tomorrow morning, but that's what they said about this morning, and it didn't turn out to be too much," said Dr. Joshua Rhodes, a research scientist at University of Texas with an expertise in power grids.

He says it doesn't surprise him that ERCOT issued another conservation call.

ERCOT Forecast for Jan. 16 at 12 p.m. Monday

The forecast on ERCOT's website on Monday afternoon initially showed demand surpassing supply in the morning hours on Tuesday.

As of noon Monday, ERCOT was projecting 86,000 MW of demand at 8 a.m. Tuesday. Capacity was projected at about 82,000 MW at that time.

By 8 p.m. Monday, ERCOT dropped the peak demand projection to 84,000 MW and the projected available capacity increased to 84,000 MW.

The forecast on the site generally overestimates demand and does not account for certain last-minute tools that ERCOT can deploy.

ERCOT Forecast for Jan. 16 at 8 p.m. Monday

With expected freezing weather across the state, 8 a.m. appears to be the time to watch across the state.

"In the wintertime, it's early in the morning when everyone's waking up. The weather is typically the colest when we're getting out of bed and everybody wants a warm house and to make their coffee and their breakfast to get ready to go," Rhodes said.

However, with many schools closed tomorrow and some people choosing not to go into the office, that might help widen the gap between supply and demand.

School closures could help with Texas energy demand

North Texas school closures could help keep energy demand down on Tuesday morning. The state's power grid manager is once again calling for conservation. However, an energy expert with the University of Texas is optimistic.

He compares the demand to what you see on the weekend.

"Demand on the weekend doesn't start going up for another hour or so during the day, which is useful in Texas, because that's when our solars really start to ramp up. We've got a really big solar fleet, so the later you can push that demand in the day, the easier it is for the grid to match it," Rhodes explained.

Another thing that will help is the brief warmup expected later this week.

"It will give a chance for buildings to warm back up, for heaters not to have to work so hard and any issues that did happen at power plants, if any did, to have time to fix them," Rhodes said.

The all-time peak demand record of 85,508 MW occurred August 10, 2023.

The power grid operator says that Texans should only conserve energy if it is safe to do so.

A Conservation Appeal is issued when the electrical demand is forecast to possibly enter emergency operations due to lower reserves.

There is another level above that.

An Energy Emergency Alert is issued when extra resources are needed due to low energy reserves. There are three levels of EEA, with controlled outages coming after hitting Level 3.

There were local outages in some parts of North Texas on Monday, but those were not due to grid failures.

The experience in the Winter Storm in 2021 still has plenty of eyes on the grid.

"I think it's deep in the Texas psyche now. Anytime it gets really hot or really cold the grid's front of mind," said Rhodes.

But Rhodes doesn't expect power plants to have any issues.

"Unless we have a loss of power plants or forecasts for demand come in much higher and wind come in lower, things like that. Tuesday morning is going to be our next tightest power of the grid, and it looks pretty good after that for the next 7 days," he said.

Another round of arctic air is expected on Monday night.

Temperatures will likely stay below freezing until Wednesday morning.