000
FXUS64 KSHV 151143
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 15/12Z TAFS...SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT
KTYR AND KLFK FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD LEADING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS. A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST SITES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW STRATUS MAY AFFECT KLFK AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
THIRD AND OUR EASTERN THIRD WHICH INCLUDES THE MIDDLE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SE OK/EXTREME NE TX AS WELL AS ALL OF SW AR AND OUR NE
LA PARISHES. WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MORE
MIXING DOWN OF DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS NE TX...FEEL LIKE THE MODELS ARE MIXING
DEWPOINTS DOWN TOO MUCH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS IS
SOMETHING THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS BUT WE SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF 105 DEGREE HEAT
INDEX TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY
METRO AREA. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT REMAIN HOT ACROSS
THOSE AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 101-104 DEGREES DURING
PEAK HEATING.
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR
REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED THIS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS AND WILL KEEP THIS MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...PERSISTENCE WILL REMAIN THE BEST FORECAST TOOL THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HEAT HERE TO STAY. THANKS FOR
THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING LZK/JAN.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 96 76 96 76 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 95 73 96 73 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 95 75 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 97 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 95 73 95 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
LAZ003>006-012>014-019>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-
097.
&&
$$
09
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 7:43AM EDT