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ERCOT meteorologist gives forecast for upcoming winter
ERCOT's chief meteorologist Chris Coleman is predicting a chance of a period of extreme cold but overall a mild winter.
The chief meteorologist for the Energy Reliability Council of Texas says this winter is shaping up to have a period of extreme cold that could look similar to 2021.
Chris Coleman, speaking to the board on Tuesday, said winter patterns in the state were shaping up to look like 2021 when a winter storm brought a pattern of extreme cold and challenged the state’s electric grid.
"The more I look at this winter," Coleman said. "The more cold potential I see."
Coleman classifies "extreme cold" occurrences as any time the temperature is 14 degrees Fahrenheit or colder in Dallas, 19 degrees or colder in Austin and 21 degrees or colder in Houston.
In five of the past eight winters, December through February, temperatures have met those thresholds in all three cities.
The low temperatures had only been met three times in the previous 25 years.
Coleman said the state set a new winter peak record in January when temperatures were 12 degrees in Dallas, 18 degrees in Houston, 17 degrees in Austin and 19 degrees in San Antonio.
Coleman said it was a reminder that even during an above average winter, periods of extreme cold could happen.
He pointed to the fact that the winter of 2020-2021 was in the upper third of coldest winters in the state because of the extreme low temperatures during the winter storm despite the rest of the time being above average.
ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said there's a slightly higher risk of reliability over last year, but some of that is being offset by improved storage capacity.
Vegas says the state has seen steady increase in demand during winter months over the past 10 years.
Texas energy demands hit a record 78,349 megawatts on Jan. 16, 2024.
Texas winter energy demands.
Vegas said more than 10,000 megawatts of production has been added to the power grid since January.
Overall, Vegas said the grid is better prepared to handle heavier winter energy demands.