Immigration needed for economy to continue growing, Dallas Federal Reserve says

DALLAS - A report published by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank says the unprecedented surge in immigration proved to be a launching pad for growth of the U.S. economy.

According to the report, because of our aging population and fewer births, economic growth cannot continue as it has without immigrants filling the workforce.

"We've been following immigration developments very closely because immigration has grown much faster than we thought it would, and it's impacting the economy," said Pia Orrenius, the Vice President of the Dallas Federal Reserve. "The research that is out there suggests we're creating 70,000 to 100,000 extra jobs per month as a result of record-high immigration."

Data from the Congressional Budget Office and Current Population Survey shows that wages have grown faster in sectors that depend on immigrants, including leisure and hospitality, hotels and restaurants, healthcare and construction.

"It's really been quite a broad-based surge," said Orrenius.

Orrenius is not oblivious to the political controversy around immigration, with President Biden ordering asylum restrictions and Republicans calling for large-scale illegal immigrant deportations.

She says the U.S. is what she calls a "demographic autumn."

"What do we mean by that? We mean that birthrates are below two, so that means that we are below replacement rates. We cannot replace our own labor force without immigration, so really, it's the only way to grow," said Orrenius.

With record-low birthrates and record-high retirement, the estimates are the nation will move from demographic autumn to winter by 2040.

"Really the clock is ticking, because as we grow older the U.S.-born population is growing more and more slowly, and it's inconsistent with our economy, which is actually quite robust," said Orrenius.

"If you look at the report and it concludes, and I believe correctly, that based on the growth needs of the United States of America, we do need and will continue to need immigration," said Dr. Amaju Loving, an Associate Professor of Finance at the UNT Dallas School of Business.

If the immigration labor force decreases it may prove challenging to sustain current levels and manner of economic growth.

"We're going to grow in a totally different way and I think there's definitely some pain points in moving from one to the other," said Orrenius.

Those painful points are likely centered on things like technology and other types of labor-saving devices and policies.