Texas Democrats need to do some soul-searching, political scientist says

Texas Democrats had major losses from the top to the bottom of the ballot. Dallas Congressman Colin Allred lost to Senator Ted Cruz, multiple Democratic judges were ousted and there were no real gains in the state legislature.

Tuesday night was more than a warning to Texas Democrats. They will need to do some major soul-searching, says SMU political scientist Matthew Wilson.

The most glaring example from Election Day was the Texas Senate race.

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While he received fewer votes than Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz still beat Representative Colin Allred by almost 10 points. The last time Cruz faced a challenger, in 2018, he won by only three points. And in that race, Beto O'Rourke won 13 more counties than Allred did last night.

Democrats ran hard on the abortion issue, and while women out voted men, that singular message did not overcome issues like the economy. 

Donald Trump and Texas Republicans also made significant gains with Latino voters; specifically Latino men.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 5: People cheer during an election watch party for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at the Marriott Marquis on November 5, 2024 in Houston, Texas. Americans are casting their ballots today in the presidential race between Republican nom

SMU Political Scientist Matthew Wilson says things like the economy and social issues, like transgender sports, played a role in Latino voters breaking with Democrats.

Border security is another issue that voters in South Texas were passionate about. In 2020, President Biden carried multiple border counties by double digits. Last night, Trump won those counties by three to six percent.

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Starr County had not voted for a Republican in a presidential election since 1896. Hillary Clinton won the county by 60 percentage points in 2016.

When it comes to the Texas Legislature, Democrats only had one real seat to pick up in the House. Republicans ran the table, and it will ensure that Governor Abbott has the needed republican votes to pass his school voucher plan. 

House Republicans will control at least 88 of the 150 seats.

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"What Texas Democrats have been doing is not working. It's not just a question of being patient, and we will slowly get there. They've been moving in reverse," said Wilson.

"I think the problem was the overwhelming single-minded focus on the abortion issue," said Wilson. "It came to dominate their whole appeal. And virtually every Colin Allred ad that you saw was about abortion was about 'Ted Cruz's abortion ban.' And at some point, that was just not going to move enough voters. Yes, there are voters that care about abortion, but in the polls, it factored in maybe third, fourth among voters' priorities and concerns. "

There was also an advertising push against so-called "soft-on-crime judges" in Dallas County that appears to have hit the mark. 

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As the vote stands now, Republicans swept every seat on the 5th Court of Appeals in Dallas and defeated four incumbent Democrats. 

The latest numbers show voter turnout in Texas was roughly the same compared to the last Presidential election. More than 11.3 million Texans voted in this year's presidential election. Roughly 3,000 fewer voters cast their ballots in the 2020 Presidential election.

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